July 26, 2008
Seacoast Online
Demographer says it’s a good reason to worry
PORTSMOUTH — A pair of local demographic experts weighed in on the causes behind numbers that suggest that even though New Hampshire’s population is trending upwards, there are fewer school-age children statewide.
U.S. Census Bureau estimates from 2007, using data from 2002 to 2007, suggest that with the exception of rural Coos County in northern New Hampshire, every county in the state is seeing modest growth in overall population, but decreases in the number of school-age children. In Rockingham County, the increase is 3.3 percent in overall population and a reduction of 1.6 percent; in Strafford County, the increase is 4.7 percent and the decrease for school-age populations is 1.1 percent.
Peter Francese, the demographic forecaster for the New England Economic Partnership, said he believes young families and those of child-bearing age are leaving the state. The increase in population, he said, is due to the state attracting a number of senior citizens at the expense of younger people; he cited statistics that peg New Hampshire’s median age as the fifth oldest in the nation, behind northeast New England neighbors Maine and Vermont ranking at one and two, respectively.
Citing numbers that show the lowest unemployment rate in the northeast and other economic standards above the national and regional average, Francese said he doesn’t believe the economy is keeping younger families away. Instead, Francese said, he believes a statewide tendency to build age-restricted housing for seniors and what he characterized as a false perception of school children adding to the tax burden have made younger families seek other places to live.
“We’re losing our young people, and at a pretty significant rate,” Francese said.
To combat the change in numbers, Francese suggests the building of more affordable housing without age-restrictions and a general shift in public policy to welcome families of all ages.
“It’s not a matter of attracting young people. It’s bolstering public policy so it doesn’t just favor one demographic group over the other,” he said.
Kenneth Johnson, the senior demographer for the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, said he thinks a number of factors are at play. He said the birth rate for most demographic groups has slightly decreased and the predominant demographic groups in New Hampshire tend to have fewer children and have them later in life.
Still, he said, the decrease in the number of school-age children might be even more dramatic if some families and of adults child-bearing age were not moving into the state. Roughly one-fifteenth of students entering first grade in the state this year will have moved from out of state, he said.
“New Hampshire benefits from the fact that it tends to gain that population,” Johnson said. “If it weren’t happening, it would be a significant problem.”
Johnson also said New Hampshire is dealing with a larger middle-aged population just outside of the prime child-bearing years due to migration. He said some amenity-rich parts of the state, particularly around Lake Winapausaukee and Conway, are attractive to older people who are thinking of moving.
Johnson also said that commonly cited statistics about the age of New Hampshire residents take into account only the median age of the state; the largest single population in the state, he said, is middle-aged people.
Johnson said he thinks growth in New Hampshire will be sensitive to the highs and lows of the economy and will be primarily focused around the New Hampshire and Massachusetts border. It’s tougher to call what will happen here in Portsmouth, where the city has had a 2.1 percent decrease in overall population to go along with a .3 percent decrease in school-age population.
Both agreed that a huge increase in school-age population is unlikely to occur anytime soon.
“It would certainly be safe to say that there likely will be no explosive growth,” Johnson said.
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CNHT Asks: So why did Bedford and Windham build huge, expensive Taj Mahal high schools which caused the taxes to soar in those communities?